Rise in SEND support pushes spending towards £21bn, IFS warns

The number of children in England receiving special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) support has almost doubled in the past decade, with spending forecast to reach £21bn by 2029, according to a new report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).

According to the report, this growth is being driven by a sharp increase in pupils with Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) and rising claims for child disability living allowance (CDLA). Combined spending on the two schemes has risen to £16bn and is set to climb by a further £5bn within four years.

One in 20 pupils under 16 now has an EHCP – the highest level of SEND support – compared with one in 37 ten years ago. Over the same period, the share of children receiving CDLA has risen from 3.4% to 7.2%, with one in ten 15-year-olds now in receipt of the benefit.

The IFS said the rapid rise has left councils facing severe financial pressures. Local authorities have a statutory duty to provide the support set out in EHCPs, but costs have exceeded central government funding since at least 2016. Council debts linked to SEND provision are forecast to reach £8bn by 2028.

Darcey Snape, research economist at the IFS, said: “An increasingly large share of young people are getting targeted educational and cash support to help them with special educational needs or disabilities. There is worryingly little evidence on what forms of support deliver the best outcomes for these young people now and into the future.

“A clear risk is that the big increases in spending on children will be followed by higher spending on young adults. A forthcoming government White Paper is expected to set out reforms to Education, Health and Care Plans this autumn. Given that child disability living allowance has been left broadly unchanged since its introduction more than 30 years ago, there is a strong case for this being reviewed too.”

The report highlighted evidence that young people receiving SEND support often experience poorer outcomes in adulthood. Of those who received both EHCP and CDLA in 2014, half were not in education, employment or training by age 22, and three-quarters were claiming adult disability benefits.

Mark Franks, director of welfare at the Nuffield Foundation, which funded the study, added: “The current system for supporting and funding children with additional needs is fragmented and hasn’t kept pace with the changing needs of the population. As demand and costs continue to rise, there is a strong case for holistic review of the system to ensure resources are directed where they are needed most.”

IFS analysis also found that government spending on children with high needs in schools has risen from £7.5bn in 2016 to £12bn this year, a 66% real-terms increase. Without reform, this is expected to rise by another £3bn by 2029. Spending on CDLA has doubled from £2bn to £4bn since 2016 and is projected to reach £6bn in the same period.

Much of the increase stems from growth in autism and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) diagnoses. The number of children with EHCPs for autism has nearly tripled since 2015, while those with plans citing social, emotional and mental health needs – including ADHD – have more than doubled. A similar trend is seen in CDLA claims.

The IFS called for the Office for Budget Responsibility to produce annual forecasts for high needs spending, warning that rising costs pose significant risks to local government finances and wider fiscal plans.