Disadvantaged pupils lose out on maths potential, UCL study finds

Children from disadvantaged backgrounds who show strong mathematical ability in primary school do not progress at the same rate as their equally skilled but more advantaged peers, a University College London (UCL) study has found.

The working paper, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, raises concerns for social mobility. It found that only 9% of disadvantaged children with early mathematics talent went on to achieve a grade B or higher in A Level maths, compared with 20% of high achievers across all backgrounds. Just 3% later studied a maths-focused degree, against 7% of peers overall.

Researchers said disadvantaged white boys were the group most likely to see early promise in mathematics go unfulfilled. They warned that England is “missing out on far too much of home-grown mathematical talent” and called on the government to consider making maths compulsory to age 18.

Professor John Jerrim and Dr Maria Palma Carvajal of the UCL Social Research Institute analysed the so-called “mathematics pipeline”, in which children with early aptitude should go on to high GCSE grades and, for some, advanced study at A Level and university.

Using data from the National Pupil Database and the Higher Education Statistics Authority, the team tracked the outcomes of more than 30,000 pupils from lower socio-economic backgrounds who had shown early strength in mathematics. They found the “pipeline” to be “leaking” talent, as many pupils opted out of maths education before university.

Among this group, 61% achieved a grade B or above in GCSE maths, compared with 82% of high achievers overall. Just 26% continued with maths after GCSE, against 35% of peers.

Dr Palma Carvajal said: “It is clear that the status quo does not support budding mathematicians from disadvantaged backgrounds to meet their potential. Even when high-achieving pupils do meet the qualifications needed to study A Level maths, they are less likely to do so than their more advantaged peers.”

The study found that 55% of disadvantaged high achievers who took A Level maths secured a grade B or higher, but only half of those went on to study a maths-focused degree.

Carvajal added: “Only 3% of the disadvantaged young people who showed an early flair for maths at primary school went on to study a maths-focused degree, which is less than half the rate among high-achieving students overall.”

Researchers identified three points where pupils dropped out of the maths pathway: GCSE attainment, A Level subject choice and degree subject choice.

Professor Jerrim said: “Clearly, greater public investment would help encourage more young people to study maths beyond GCSE. Introducing compulsory maths to age 18 could help plug one of the leakiest parts of the mathematics pipeline.”

The findings also highlighted variation between groups. White pupils, particularly boys, were most likely to lose momentum during secondary school. Asian and black pupils were more likely to turn early strength into high GCSE grades, though high-achieving disadvantaged white boys were the most likely to study maths at university.

Gender differences were also marked, with boys more likely than equally able girls to study maths post-16.