Predicted grades align with results for under half of KS4 pupils

Fewer than half of Key Stage 4 pupils received the same predicted and actual grades in 2025, according to national analysis of around one million grade pairs submitted by 740 secondary schools.

The study compared “final” predicted grades collected in May and June with GCSE results submitted to FFT’s Early Results service on or shortly after results day. While the dataset shows that predicted grades tend to track outcomes closely at cohort level, alignment for individual pupils was far weaker.

Schools used different evidence and moderation approaches when forming predictions, and teachers may have submitted grades at varying points in the exam cycle. The analysis also cautions that exam marking varies in reliability across subjects, meaning differences between predicted and examined grades do not always indicate inaccurate judgement.

Across subjects, average predicted and actual grades were generally similar. Most subjects saw predictions only fractionally higher than results, typically by a quarter of a grade or less. Computer science showed the largest gap, with predictions 0.4 grades higher on average. Maths, combined science, photography and English literature showed almost no difference in average grade.

At grade distribution level, 78% of predictions were at grade 4 or above compared with 74% of results, while 4.3% of predictions were for grade 9, below the 5.2% awarded.

Pupil-level analysis revealed wider divergence. In all but four subjects, most pupils received a different result from the grade predicted. Maths and art and design subjects had the highest match rates, each above 50%. English literature, despite almost no average difference, had one of the lowest match rates at around 34%. Combined science also recorded a low match rate, reflecting its broader grading scale.

The findings suggest that, nationally, predicted grades provide a reasonable guide to cohort performance but are less reliable for forecasting individual outcomes. Schools that took part in the research can view their own detailed analysis through the Aspire platform.