Scottish teacher-number target missed despite slight rise in headcount

Scotland has missed its target to increase teacher numbers by 3,500 by 2026, despite a small rise in headcount this year, analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies shows.

Teacher numbers remain almost 3,700 below the government’s goal of 57,100, even as ministers now prioritise restoring staffing to 2023 levels.

The report notes that councils have made modest reductions in staff since 2021 as they sought savings, keeping pupil–teacher ratios broadly stable at about 13.3 in 2024. Ratios remain significantly lower than elsewhere in the UK, where they range between 17 and 19.

Pupil rolls are continuing to fall. Primary numbers peaked in 2017 and secondary numbers are expected to peak within two years before declining. Projections suggest a 12.5% fall in pupil numbers by 2040, with the steepest drops in rural and island areas. The report warns this will make it harder to sustain existing school and staffing structures without substantial additional funding.

Maintaining current ratios would allow councils to reduce teacher numbers by more than 1,000 by 2027, generating estimated savings of £65–£120m. Keeping teacher numbers at 2023 levels, by contrast, would reduce ratios further to around 13.5. Looking ahead to 2040, declining enrolment could permit cuts of up to 12.5% in teacher numbers while preserving present ratios.

The report also highlights broader pressures on schools, including a sharp rise in pupils with additional support needs, which now account for more than 40% of all pupils. Despite this, spending on support has not increased at the same rate and the number of additional-needs teachers has fallen since 2010.

IFS concludes that a uniform national commitment to maintain teacher numbers is unlikely to offer value for money and says councils should instead be allowed to adjust staffing to local needs.