OBR defends SEND budget forecast

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has defended the modelling behind its forecast for future spending on special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) during a Treasury Committee hearing on the Autumn Budget.

Members of the Budget Responsibility Committee were questioned by MPs as part of the committee’s scrutiny of the government’s plans for 2025–26. The session included examination of SEND-related costs set out in the Budget documents, which project rising demand and higher long-term spending pressures.

Evidence papers published for the hearing show the watchdog was asked to explain the assumptions behind its SEND projections and the basis on which future spending risks had been assessed. Committee members challenged officials on the drivers of the underlying forecast and the extent to which expenditure trends reflect increases in the number of children receiving support.

The Department for Education has separately highlighted measures announced in the Autumn Budget intended to manage pressures in the system. These include more specialist places in mainstream settings, an expansion of early support and a commitment to improve pathways for children with more complex needs.

According to the department, the changes aim to reduce reliance on high-cost placements and provide clearer support earlier in a child’s education.

OBR officials told MPs their role was to set out the fiscal risks attached to existing policy commitments, noting that SEND remains an area in which spending has grown steadily. One official said: “Our forecast reflects the information and commitments currently available.”

Further detail on the government’s reforms is expected next year, when the Department for Education publishes its Schools White Paper setting out longer-term plans for SEND provision.