London schools face closures as primary pupil numbers fall, EPI finds

Primary school enrolments in London have fallen sharply in recent years, with several boroughs planning closures as the number of children in classrooms continues to decline, according to a recent analysis by the Education Policy Institute (EPI).

Across England, pupil numbers are expected to fall by 400,000 by the end of the decade. Since 2019, primary schools nationally have lost about 150,000 pupils, a trend largely linked to falling birth rates since 2012.

London has been hit earlier and harder than most regions. Between 2018 and 2023, nine of the 10 local authorities recording the biggest falls in primary enrolments were in the capital. Westminster saw the largest drop at nearly 16%, followed by boroughs including Lambeth, Southwark, Hackney, and Camden, all with reductions of between 8% and 14%.

Shrinking rolls mean financial strain for schools, as funding is allocated on a per-pupil basis while fixed costs remain. In boroughs such as Lambeth and Hackney, councils are preparing to close schools, while others including Southwark and Islington have already shut several in the past five years.

The decline has been compounded by families moving out of London. Analysis of national pupil data shows that about 20% of pupils who began primary school in 2017 had left the capital by Year 6, up from 17% in the 2012 cohort. Many families relocate to nearby counties such as Kent, Essex, Hertfordshire, Surrey, and Buckinghamshire, while others leave the state sector entirely.

The ethnic profile of those leaving is uneven. Pupils from White British, White Irish and Any Other White backgrounds are among the most likely to move or exit the state system. In contrast, some groups, including Chinese and Bangladeshi pupils, showed modest increases in moving into London, though overall numbers remain low.

Forecasts suggest London’s enrollment decline will accelerate. By 2028/29, primary pupil numbers in Islington and Lambeth are expected to have fallen by about 30% compared with a decade earlier, while most other Inner London boroughs face drops of more than 20%.

Neighbouring areas are projected to absorb many of the pupils leaving. Central Bedfordshire, Luton, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough are all forecast to see rises, with Central Bedfordshire alone expected to grow by almost 13%.

The sustained decline, the EPI noted, reflects more than falling birth rates. High living costs are pushing families out of the capital, while a growing share of pupils are leaving the state sector altogether.