Record levels of school absence ‘risk wave of youth unemployment’

Severe school absence in England has reached a record high for an autumn term, according to new analysis from the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ).

The think tank said 147,605 pupils were classed as severely absent in autumn 2024 – up 3.6% on the previous year. Persistent absence has fallen by 8.8% over the same period, but 1,284,005 children were still persistently absent – almost 40% higher than in autumn 2019.

The CSJ found that children eligible for free school meals are nearly four times more likely to be severely absent than their peers. Those with an education, health and care (EHC) plan are seven times more likely.

The report warned that rising absence rates are contributing to wider economic challenges by pushing more pupils towards “worklessness and welfare dependency”.

The CSJ estimates that almost 180,000 children will become not in education, employment or training (NEET) over the course of this Parliament as a result of persistent absence. It said this is nearly double the number that would be expected if absence had returned to pre-pandemic levels, with an estimated lifetime cost to the taxpayer of £14bn.

Although severe absence is typically lower in the autumn term than in summer, the 2024 figure remains close to the summer 2023 high of 172,938.

Beth Prescott, education lead at the CSJ, said: “Five years on from school closures, classroom absences can no longer be viewed as a post-pandemic blip. The material risk now is that this issue is becoming deeply entrenched. This is not just an educational problem. It is sending a bow wave of harm through our economy, driving more young people towards a life of wasted potential and benefit dependency.

“Ministers must now build on the progress they have made and work with local charities and families to provide more absent pupils with the mentorship they need to return to school. But with the crisis deepening we need to attack the root causes of school absence, including softening parental attitudes to attendance and an education system that fails to engage thousands of young people.”

Ali Wheeler, chief executive of WeMindTheGap, added: “We’re not surprised by these figures. We work with amazing young people every day who are affected by not only the pace, structure and pressure of the school environment, but are also dealing with significant other challenges outside of school which are impacting attendance.

“We say it takes a village to raise a child, but a system to mind their gaps. We must work together to understand the gaps, the system of support and most importantly, ensure every young person has the opportunity to live, learn and thrive.”