National pupil projections show school populations falling by 2030

The number of pupils in England’s schools is projected to fall by 2030, with the most significant drop expected in nursery and primary schools, according to the latest national projections.

Figures forecast 4,205,117 pupils in nursery and primary schools by 2030 – a fall of 300,000 from 2025. The secondary school population is projected to reach 3,135,086 by 2030, a decrease of 97,000 over the same period.

The statistics are based on Office for National Statistics (ONS) population estimates and projections, monthly birth registration data up to 2023, and school census data up to January 2025.

Projections draw on the latest available data, including:

• ONS population estimates, which were rebased back to 2011 following the 2021 Census
• Mid-2022 based population projections, incorporating 2021 Census data, revised fertility and mortality assumptions, and variant scenarios

These projections assume higher long-term international migration, lower future fertility, and longer life expectancy than the interim 2021-based figures.

Although the latest provisional migration figures – published after the data cut-off – show long-term net migration fell by almost 50% in the year to December 2024, no adjustments were made to the pupil model. The current projections continue to use the principal variant, as the low migration scenario has a minimal effect and uncertainty remains.

The DfE said due to increased uncertainty in migration forecasts, projections in this release run only to 2030, rather than the standard 2035. The previous model, published in 2024, projected only to 2028 due to concerns over longer-term fertility trends.

The nursery and primary school population peaked in 2019 and has declined since, largely due to falling birth rates since 2012.

Meanwhile, secondary school numbers rose steadily from 2018, increasing by around 2% annually until 2023. Growth slowed to 1.3% in 2024, followed by a marginal decline of 0.1% in 2025. Projections suggest this population has now plateaued and will begin to fall from 2026 – two years earlier than previously forecast.

State-funded special school populations have risen consistently, with annual increases of 6% between 2018 and 2022, and 5% since 2023. Numbers are expected to peak between 2026 and 2027.

In alternative provision schools, pupil numbers dropped sharply in 2021 (by 18%) and 2022 (by 9%) due to fewer referrals during the pandemic. Figures returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2024 and rose by 5% in 2025. A peak is expected between 2026 and 2027, though this forecast carries higher uncertainty due to the volatility of previous years.