Impact of VAT on fees ‘worse’ than predicted, says ISC 

The number of pupils at independent schools has fallen by more than 13,000 in a year, according to the Independent School Council’s (ISC) latest annual census.Data from the ISC’s annual census shows that the like-for-like number of pupils dropped from 551,578 to 538,215 in the year to January. 

This marks the largest fall in private school pupil numbers recorded by the ISC since its records began in 2012. 

The figures “cast doubt” on ministers’ predictions that only 3,000 children would leave the independent sector during the 2024-25 academic year as a result of VAT on fees, rising to 14,000 by summer next year.

Speaking to The Times, Julie Robinson, chief executive of the ISC, said: “Our data shows a significant decrease in pupil numbers. It is going to take a few years until we see the full impact of this, but [we believe] it’s worse than the government predicted.

“Anyone who’s interested in the government’s VAT policy as a revenue raiser should be seriously concerned by these numbers. It risks raising absolutely nothing [in revenue] and yet the damage it is doing in terms of disrupting the education of children is already clear.”

Aatif Hassan, founder and chairman of Dukes Education, which runs 27 independent schools and colleges and is a member of the ISC, told the paper: “These figures do not reflect the full damage inflicted on the education sector by the imposition of VAT. We are just beginning to see the impact on families and the flow through of that will become more apparent in September and next academic year, on both independent and state schools.”